Whilst I am in no sense someone who thinks daily about the zombie apocalypse, some thoughts about the future are in order. It is worth being prepared, so far as is possible without ruining your daily life. It is worth embracing the idea of thinking ahead, albeit with care. Care is needed for two reasons. Firstly, R.A Heinlein noted that an authentic soothsayer (someone who really can predict the future rather than a mere charlatan making it up as they go along) doesn’t get half the kicking they deserve. Secondly, whilst it is no prophecy to say that an egg placed on a table will probably roll off to fall to the floor and smash, many people don’t want to hear that – particularly if that egg forms part of theirs and their children’s dinner.

For the end of the world as we know it – global nuclear war, apocalyptic plagues, the Yellowstone Caldera exploding, hostile aliens landing – the individual cannot really prepare. All we can do is feel fine, as Michael Stipe sings in the R.E.M song “It’s the end of the world as we know it”. Here then, are five trends I think will matter to people in the UK particularly, in the next 10-15 years. In all of this I try to make no judgement on the good or bad of it all, just noting that I think that this or that will happen.

A rise in authoritarianism: We’re seeing a rise, not only in authoritarian politics, but in people’s tolerance of, and demand for, authoritarian politics, both in the UK and right across the west. Deplorable though it is, I think Trump will be re-elected, and you know what, I don’t think there WILL be a significant election in the USA in 2029/30. I hope I’m wrong…

Right here in the UK, only in recent weeks a poll indicated that as many as a fifth of people think being masked up whilst in public transport, should be mandatory even now. We live in a country where the state has the right to forbid you from going to the pub – and a majority of people approve of that. But others, a minority perhaps, would rather live in a country where they are free to go to the pub, rather than in a country where it is free to go to the doctors (but you can’t get an appointment for three weeks). 

Restrictions on travel: A few years ago someone I knew travelled on her own from the south of England to the very top of Scotland, and back again. Why? Because she could. No-one stopped her; no-one asked her to produce ID, no-one asked her to justify or provide a reason for her journey. Today you can still travel as you please through the UK without producing ID, and without justifying your journey to the people around you or to officious officials in epaulettes and peaked caps. I doubt if this will be possible in ten years from now, much less 15 years from now. Somebody somewhere, pretty soon, will start saying – “Is your journey really necessary?” Travel the world NOW if you can, because pretty soon people will try to forbid it as being bad for the planet. As a small aside on domestic politics, apart from any of the above, I think (and I am only half tongue-in-cheek saying this) that English people may need a passport to visit Scotland in ten years from now!

The effective collapse of the NHS and the welfare state: The NHS is in crisis, but no-one will admit that; no-one will say out loud that the NHS is failing. It does a great job in many ways, but in other ways, not so much. Part of the problem is that, as others have said, belief in the NHS has now become a national religion, complete with untouchable sacred cows. To even question the basic Bevanite principle of free at point of use care for all, is to commit the gravest heresy. An entity calling itself “The National Health Service” will probably exist on paper well into the 22nd century – but the NHS we had only thirty years ago has already gone. It is like the parrot in the Monty Python sketch – it is dead. It has shuffled its mortal coil. But no – it is “just sleeping“…

People think the NHS is in crisis now! In ten years from now people will look back with nostalgia and affection at the NHS we had way back in 2024! I don’t want to even think about what sort of care will be available in 2044 – when I will be in my late seventies. We may yet escape the partial collapse of the welfare state and the effective failure of the NHS, but I suggest that we will do so only at the expense of liberal democracy. People want goods and services, but no-one wants to pay for them. The NHS has to paid for, and it may end up being funded by levels of taxation and confiscation of wealth not possible in a liberal democracy. See above on authoritarianism – we may favour free healthcare over free-dom.

Increasingly violent and extreme weather: I can’t say “unpredictable” weather for the obvious reason that I am predicting it right here, right now. We’ve recently seen a tornado tear off a roof in Stalybridge. In the coming years we’ll see all kinds of things – snow in June, 24 degrees Celsius in February. We’ll see summer heat with 40 degrees Celsius right here in the UK. We’ll see a Big Dry where it doesn’t rain from June to September…and then more rain falling on one October morning than in all the previous two years. The effects of all that on houses, cars, roads and insurance premiums, can hardly be imagined.

Unreliable power, water and internet: Most of us in the UK take it for granted that we have exceptionally reliable 24/7 mains electricity and clean running water. The younger generation also take for granted, 24/7 access to the internet. For any number of reasons, I find it unlikely that we will be taking all three of those things for granted in 15 years from now. The political, regulatory and technical requirements imposed to reach #Netzero will eventually mean power cuts become an everyday part of life in the UK. Aging and unrepaired infrastructure, and the above-mentioned extreme weather, will likewise take their toll. Another thing that I see as inevitable, is a cyber-attack on the internet, rendering all electronic funds transfer impossible for 60, 70, 80 hours – days even. And that will happen on the day you need to refuel your car and buy groceries. How much cash have you got on your person?